Introduction
My website, The Red List of Trains in Japan has focused on rolling stock and especially "endangered" train types in the country. However, it should be noted that rolling stock and train services are different. Even if a company does not have a plan to replace certain train units with others, some services might be downgraded or discontinued in the near future as the demand drops. This article focuses on limited express services that could disappear within a few years.
Taisetsu
| Service commenced: | 2017 |
| Termini: | Asahikawa, Abashiri |
| Lines (principal): | Sekihoku Main Line |
| Distance: | 237.7 km (147.7 miles) |
| Journey time (fastest): | 3 h 37 min |
| Operator: | JR Hokkaido |
Limited Express Taisetsu is a long-distance intercity service connecting Asahikawa and Abashiri in Hokkaido. There are two trains per day but do not run on certain Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (off-season). There has been another limited express service called Okhotsk that runs between Sapporo and Asahikawa, but JR Hokkaido shortened some Okhotsk trains and renamed Taisetsu. Sekihoku Main Line has suffered from low ridership for more than 20 years as motorways opened that are shorter and allow faster speed than the railway.
On 7 June 2024, the local newspaper Hokkaido Shimbun reported that Taisetsu could be downgraded to a rapid train in March 2025, which does not require a limited express ticket. It would be beneficial for both passengers and JR Hokkaido as the fares will be cheaper and less staff than limited express will be necessary. No official announcement has been made by the company, but it is likely to take place soon.
Suzuran
| Service commenced: | 1992 |
| Termini (principal): | Sapporo, Muroran |
| Lines (principal): | Muroran Main Line |
| Distance: | 136.2 km (84.6 miles) |
| Journey time (fastest): | 1 h 42 min |
| Operator: | JR Hokkaido |
Limited Express Suzuran runs between Sapporo and Higashi-Muroran or Muroran. Muroran has the largest port in the island of Hokkaido so that the transport between these two cities have been in high demand. Nevertheless, the ridership of Suzuran has plummeted since March 2024 as seat reservation is now mandatory. This is effectively a massive fare rise so that most passengers have shifted to coach services. A single fare between Sapporo and Muroran is 5,220 yen for Suzuran while 2,500 yen for bus (though it takes an hour longer than the train).
There is an argument that JR Hokkaido has not learned anything from the history of Japanese National Railways, which fell into a vicious spiral of fare rises and a drop in demand. This is not necessarily true as JR Hokkaido has introduced discounts for reservation in advance. However, it seems that Japanese people dislike dynamic pricing as it is hard to understand and they feel being treated unfairly when it comes to railway fares. Other intercity trains of JR Hokkaido including Kamui and Lilac have the same problem, but Suzuran has hit the hardest so far. Therefore, the president of the company conceded during a regular press conference held on 11 June that he did not persist with having limited express services, and indicated that Suzuran could be downgraded to rapid.
Kinugawa
| Service commenced: | 2006 |
| Termini (principal): | Shinjuku (JR), Kinugawa-onsen |
| Lines (principal): | Utsunomiya line and Tobu lines |
| Distance: | 140.2 km (87.1 miles) |
| Journey time (fastest): | 2 h 5 min |
| Operators: | JR East, Tobu Railway |
As the name suggests, Limited Express Kinugawa connects Shinjuku and Kinugawa-onsen, the famous tourist spot with hot springs. There are also a few trains called Nikko that connect Shinjuku and Nikko. Both JR East and Tobu Railway provide the services (Tobu's trains are called SPACIA Kinugawa or SPACIA Nikko). The Tokyo-Nikko route had been highly competitive since 1929, but Tobu won by the early-1980s. Twenty years later, Tobu asked for JR East to establish a through-service because both Kinugawa and Nikko were suffering from a decline, as most Japanese people preferred going abroad.
The through-service has not been successful. There are many reasons for the low ridership. First, most tourists prefer road transport as most tourist spots in the area are not in the vicinity of railway stations. Second, there are only two regular services a day. There were four daily services until 2023, but both companies have decided to axe them. Instead, there are three more services that run at weekends and during high seasons. Third, JR Rail Pass does not cover Kinugawa or Nikko as the trains simply run non-JR lines, resulting in a small number of foreign tourists.
As JR East 253 series and Tobu 100 series SPACIA are expected to be withdrawn within a few years, the through-services are likely to end by then.
Fujikawa
| Service commenced: | 1964 (as Express Fujikawa) |
| Termini: | Shizuoka, Kofu |
| Lines (principal): | Minobu line |
| Distance: | 122.4 km (76.1 miles) |
| Journey time (fastest): | 2 h 14 min |
| Operator: | JR Central |
Limited Express Fujikawa connects two prefectural capitals, Kofu in Yamanashi Prefecture and Shizuoka. Minobu line is a rural railway and known for great scenery as trains run by Fuji River and Mt Fuji. The train named after the river runs roughly every two hours. It is not just for tourists but also for local residents and businesspeople. JR Central has introduced discount tickets for short-distance journey, allowing commuters and students to use it easily.
Even so, its future is bleak. A motorway called Chubu-Odan Expressway opened in 2021, and now the road transport can connect the two cities in just two hours. Though there are only two coach services on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, the cheaper bus will surely take train users over. It does not necessarily mean that Minobu line will close as there are quite a few people living near the railway, but it is not certain whether Fujikawa can survive. JR Central 373 series trains are quite old, but will the company introduce brand new trains to the area?
Muroto
| Service commenced: | 1999 |
| Termini (principal): | Tokushima, Mugi |
| Line: | Mugi line |
| Distance: | 67.7 km (42.1 miles) |
| Journey time (fastest): | 1 h 21 min |
| Operator: | JR Shikoku |
Many people firmly believe that Limited Express Muroto is on the verge of its demise. It connects Tokushima and Mugi on a rural railway called Mugi line. There were three services on each direction until 2019 but declined to just one as most local residents prefer cars. Today, a train towards Tokushima leaves Mugi in the early morning and returns in the evening, suggesting that the service is used by commuters and possibly a few students.
Muruto is still faster than stopping services as its journey time is 40 minutes shorter than the slow trains. However, given that the area has been sparsely populated for more than 200 years and no sign of population growth, the future of Muroto or even Mugi line itself is uncertain. Nobody would be surprised if JR Shikoku announced the withdrawal of Muroto at any time.
Personal views
Many people blame depopulation, but the low ridership is not necessarily triggered only by that. It is noted that those running railways and the authorities in Japan are not stupid, and they have endeavoured to keep those trains. Nevertheless, not everything succeeds.
Railways in Hokkaido have always said to be extremely difficult to maintain due to the harsh climate and geographical reasons, the government should fund them. However, residents in Hokkaido generally reject the idea because of antipathy against railways (or rather, trade unions) that has lasted for decades and highly sceptical about the necessity of having them.
As I argued before, railways are not necessarily greener or better than cars. In some cases, where new roads can connect cities and towns shorter while railway routes are winding due to historical reasons, road transport is more sustainable and safer than trains. Those five limited express trains might have already fulfilled their roles and about to disappear. Anybody interested in the journey are highly recommended to plan a trip before it is too late.
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