Soya Russell

Japan is said to have subtropical climate, but northern part of the country has subarctic climate. Hokkaido has been known for the coldest and the snowiest region in Japan. Global warming has caused significantly high temperature across the country in summer, but the heavy snow is still observed in the northern part in winter. Hence, railway companies have special trains to remove snow on tracks. Soya Main Line, a rural railway connecting Asahikawa and Wakkanai, is well known for having them.

There had been several types of such trains, but most of them used today are classified as Russell trains in Japanese. This is the most common and the simplest, which have a large snow plough that clears snow between and by the tracks. The term Russell derives from Russell Car & Snow Plow Company in Pennsylvania, which exported the very first rolling stock for removing snow to Japan in 1911.

There had been many diesel locomotives for dealing with heavy snow until the 2000s, but most of them retired as the amount of snowfall declined in many areas due to the global warming, and snow blowers that are smaller, cheaper and easier to use were developed. Today, Class DE15 is the only active one on the entire JR network.

The Class DE15 was developed by Japanese National Railways. 85 locomotives in total were built in 1967-81 and allocated mostly to the northern region. The Class DE15 can also haul other trains in spring, summer and autumn so that some of them are used as a shunter or for rail tours.

However, its appearance changes in winter. When snowplough units are attached to the locomotive, the Class DE15 looks completely different to its original style. In fact, the snowplough unit consists not only of a plough itself but also a cab and spare lights. The length of the locomotive is 14.15 metres (46 ft 5 in), but it will be up to 30.86 metres (101 ft 3 in) with snowplough units, describing how large the units are.

Drivers can adjust ploughs depending on the amount of snow. The photo above shows how it looks like when there is little snow between tracks. A small side plough is deployed and it scoops up some snow, but spare headlights are not turned on, indicating that just a small amount of snow is expected.

When there is more snow, both side ploughs are deployed and all headlights are turned on. This is Otoineppu village, where annual snowfall is approximately 10 metres (33 ft) and there is often 30 cm (a foot) of snowfall every single day. This is why special locomotives like the Class DE15 is still necessary.

It is hard for railway enthusiasts to catch the Class DE15. First, it mostly runs remote areas where just a handful of train services a day are available. Second, the deep snow makes it extremely difficult to access. Third, it may not run if there is little snow but cannot run if there is too much snow.

To those of you who wish to see the DE15 should be well prepared, as the minimum temperature could go well below -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit) at night with high winds. Unlike snow-clearing trains on other lines, those on Soya Main Line run frequently (almost daily) at the daytime, but note that all of them are still marked as "runs as required", and thus their operation is not 100% guaranteed.

2025 Timetable Changes on JR Network

Seven JR companies have published details about the timetable revision that takes place on Saturday 15 March 2025. Compared to the previous year, there are not so many changes. However, two out of five intercity trains that were labelled "Limited Express that could be discontinued" end a day before the revision. This article describes what will change within three months.

JR Hokkaido

Limited Express Taisetsu, a long-distance intercity service between Asahikawa and Abashiri, will be downgraded to Special Rapid with the same name. To attract more passengers, the company decided to make the service more affordable by rearranging the service to Special Rapid, which does not require a limited express ticket. The journey time will mostly be unchanged.

Some other limited express services will call at fewer stations than they do at present, resulting in a significant reduction of journey time. For example, Limited Express Ozora 7 from Sapporo to Kushiro will take 3 hours 54 minutes, 31 minutes shorter than the current timetable.

Five stations on rural lines will be permanently closed, namely Higashi-Nemuro and Higashi-Takikawa stations on Nemuro Main Line as well as Bakkai, Minami-Horonobe and Onoppunai stations on Soya Main Line. After the Higashi-Nemuro closure, Nemuro will be the easternmost railway station in Japan.

JR East

More E8 series bullet trains will be introduced to Yamagata Shinkansen, and E3 series will be withdrawn by March 2026. When the replacement completes, the journey time between Tokyo and Yamagata is expected to be reduced further as the E8 series can run faster than the E3 series.

All Chuo Line (Rapid) commuter trains including those run as far as Ome will be formed of 12 coaches. Green Car (first class coaches) are currently free of charge, but a special fare will be applied from 15 March. JR East considers that the new Green Cars will provide more opportunities for exhausted commuters to have a seat. Limited Express Hachioji and Ome that run during rush hours will be discontinued as the new Green Cars will suffice.

Keiyo and Tokaido Line services will be reduced due to a slight decline in demand, while more services will be available on Musashino, Nambu and Yamanote Lines as well as Nikko Line due to an increase in demand. Driver-only operation will be implemented on certain lines including Nambu Line and Joban (Local) Line.

JR Central

No major change is planned. However, it is worth noting that approximately one in two restrooms on Tokaido Shinkansen trains will be for women, up from one in four. The change will take place from this month and complete by mid-March.

While the official announcement does not refer to, 211 series, a type of suburban train now runs only in Shizuoka, is likely to retire by March 2025.

JR West

As Expo 2025 will be held in Osaka, there will be extra services for those visiting the site during the World Expo, not only commuter rails such as Osaka Loop Line but also high-speed rails.

"Ure seat" service, a seat reservation scheme that has already been adopted in Kansai region, will be expanded to Fukuchiyama (Takarazuka) and San'in Main (Sagano) Lines as well as Tokaido Main Line (Kyoto and Biwako Lines) between Osaka and Yasu.

Limited Express Mahoroba that runs between Shin-Osaka or Osaka and Nara during high seasons will run daily. According to another document by JR West, there will be decorated train units specifically for the service.

JR Shikoku

Compared to other companies, JR Shikoku has made more disappointing decisions as the ridership continues to decline while local residents and businesspeople prefer road transport. Limited Express Muroto between Tokushima and Mugi, which has been wondered by many railway enthusiasts for years why it still runs, will be discontinued at last.

In addition, Limited Express Shimanto (Takamatsu – Kochi), Tsurugisan (Tokushima - Awa-Ikeda) as well as Uzushio (Takamatsu - Tokushima) will be reduced. All Uzushio services will start from or terminate at Takamatsu, and none of them will run as far as Okayama.

There is also good news. Train services on rural lines will be evened out further, making them easier to understand. It suggests that JR Shikoku has been improving regional trains to make them convenient for students and elderly people, rather than competing with motorways by concentrating on intercity trains.

JR Kyushu

As train congestion has been getting worse as the ridership recovers after the COVID-19 pandemic, JR Kyushu has been trying their best to ease it while not introducing new trains. This is mostly achieved by removing seats on trains, which leads to passenger dissatisfaction with the regional train services, but JR Kyushu rules out the introduction of new trains anytime soon.

In other news, a new station on Nippo Main Line will open near Sengan-en, a large Japanese garden in Kagoshima city and a part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site. It has been notorious for being far from Kagoshima station. The new station will be less than five minutes on foot from the main gate of the garden.

JR Freight

JR Freight has been improving its services as rail transport is greener. The shortage of lorry drivers also leads to an increase in demand. Hence, the company has decided to provide more trains that are faster than today. For example, a train from Sapporo to Hiroshima will take 31 hours 11 minutes, 9 hours 12 minutes shorter than the current timetable. While most people are not familiar with freight trains, the timetable revision hopefully results in a positive economic consequences.

---

For detail, check official press release pages as listed below.

• JR Hokkaido
• JR East
• JR Central
• JR West
• JR Shikoku
• JR Kyushu
• JR Freight

Limited Express that could be discontinued

Introduction

My website, The Red List of Trains in Japan has focused on rolling stock and especially "endangered" train types in the country. However, it should be noted that rolling stock and train services are different. Even if a company does not have a plan to replace certain train units with others, some services might be downgraded or discontinued in the near future as the demand drops. This article focuses on limited express services that could disappear within a few years.

Taisetsu

Service commenced:	2017
Termini:	Asahikawa, Abashiri
Lines (principal):	Sekihoku Main Line
Distance:	237.7 km (147.7 miles)
Journey time (fastest):	3 h 37 min
Operator:	JR Hokkaido

Limited Express Taisetsu is a long-distance intercity service connecting Asahikawa and Abashiri in Hokkaido. There are two trains per day but do not run on certain Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (off-season). There has been another limited express service called Okhotsk that runs between Sapporo and Asahikawa, but JR Hokkaido shortened some Okhotsk trains and renamed Taisetsu. Sekihoku Main Line has suffered from low ridership for more than 20 years as motorways opened that are shorter and allow faster speed than the railway.

On 7 June 2024, the local newspaper Hokkaido Shimbun reported that Taisetsu could be downgraded to a rapid train in March 2025, which does not require a limited express ticket. It would be beneficial for both passengers and JR Hokkaido as the fares will be cheaper and less staff than limited express will be necessary. No official announcement has been made by the company, but it is likely to take place soon.

Suzuran

Service commenced:	1992
Termini (principal):	Sapporo, Muroran
Lines (principal):	Muroran Main Line
Distance:	136.2 km (84.6 miles)
Journey time (fastest):	1 h 42 min
Operator:	JR Hokkaido

Limited Express Suzuran runs between Sapporo and Higashi-Muroran or Muroran. Muroran has the largest port in the island of Hokkaido so that the transport between these two cities have been in high demand. Nevertheless, the ridership of Suzuran has plummeted since March 2024 as seat reservation is now mandatory. This is effectively a massive fare rise so that most passengers have shifted to coach services. A single fare between Sapporo and Muroran is 5,220 yen for Suzuran while 2,500 yen for bus (though it takes an hour longer than the train).

There is an argument that JR Hokkaido has not learned anything from the history of Japanese National Railways, which fell into a vicious spiral of fare rises and a drop in demand. This is not necessarily true as JR Hokkaido has introduced discounts for reservation in advance. However, it seems that Japanese people dislike dynamic pricing as it is hard to understand and they feel being treated unfairly when it comes to railway fares. Other intercity trains of JR Hokkaido including Kamui and Lilac have the same problem, but Suzuran has hit the hardest so far. Therefore, the president of the company conceded during a regular press conference held on 11 June that he did not persist with having limited express services, and indicated that Suzuran could be downgraded to rapid.

Kinugawa

Service commenced:	2006
Termini (principal):	Shinjuku (JR), Kinugawa-onsen
Lines (principal):	Utsunomiya line and Tobu lines
Distance:	140.2 km (87.1 miles)
Journey time (fastest):	2 h 5 min
Operators:	JR East, Tobu Railway

As the name suggests, Limited Express Kinugawa connects Shinjuku and Kinugawa-onsen, the famous tourist spot with hot springs. There are also a few trains called Nikko that connect Shinjuku and Nikko. Both JR East and Tobu Railway provide the services (Tobu's trains are called SPACIA Kinugawa or SPACIA Nikko). The Tokyo-Nikko route had been highly competitive since 1929, but Tobu won by the early-1980s. Twenty years later, Tobu asked for JR East to establish a through-service because both Kinugawa and Nikko were suffering from a decline, as most Japanese people preferred going abroad.

The through-service has not been successful. There are many reasons for the low ridership. First, most tourists prefer road transport as most tourist spots in the area are not in the vicinity of railway stations. Second, there are only two regular services a day. There were four daily services until 2023, but both companies have decided to axe them. Instead, there are three more services that run at weekends and during high seasons. Third, JR Rail Pass does not cover Kinugawa or Nikko as the trains simply run non-JR lines, resulting in a small number of foreign tourists.

As JR East 253 series and Tobu 100 series SPACIA are expected to be withdrawn within a few years, the through-services are likely to end by then.

Fujikawa

Service commenced:	1964 (as Express Fujikawa)
Termini:	Shizuoka, Kofu
Lines (principal):	Minobu line
Distance:	122.4 km (76.1 miles)
Journey time (fastest):	2 h 14 min
Operator:	JR Central

Limited Express Fujikawa connects two prefectural capitals, Kofu in Yamanashi Prefecture and Shizuoka. Minobu line is a rural railway and known for great scenery as trains run by Fuji River and Mt Fuji. The train named after the river runs roughly every two hours. It is not just for tourists but also for local residents and businesspeople. JR Central has introduced discount tickets for short-distance journey, allowing commuters and students to use it easily.

Even so, its future is bleak. A motorway called Chubu-Odan Expressway opened in 2021, and now the road transport can connect the two cities in just two hours. Though there are only two coach services on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, the cheaper bus will surely take train users over. It does not necessarily mean that Minobu line will close as there are quite a few people living near the railway, but it is not certain whether Fujikawa can survive. JR Central 373 series trains are quite old, but will the company introduce brand new trains to the area?

Muroto

Service commenced:	1999
Termini (principal):	Tokushima, Mugi
Line:	Mugi line
Distance:	67.7 km (42.1 miles)
Journey time (fastest):	1 h 21 min
Operator:	JR Shikoku

Many people firmly believe that Limited Express Muroto is on the verge of its demise. It connects Tokushima and Mugi on a rural railway called Mugi line. There were three services on each direction until 2019 but declined to just one as most local residents prefer cars. Today, a train towards Tokushima leaves Mugi in the early morning and returns in the evening, suggesting that the service is used by commuters and possibly a few students.

Muruto is still faster than stopping services as its journey time is 40 minutes shorter than the slow trains. However, given that the area has been sparsely populated for more than 200 years and no sign of population growth, the future of Muroto or even Mugi line itself is uncertain. Nobody would be surprised if JR Shikoku announced the withdrawal of Muroto at any time.

Personal views

Many people blame depopulation, but the low ridership is not necessarily triggered only by that. It is noted that those running railways and the authorities in Japan are not stupid, and they have endeavoured to keep those trains. Nevertheless, not everything succeeds.

Railways in Hokkaido have always said to be extremely difficult to maintain due to the harsh climate and geographical reasons, the government should fund them. However, residents in Hokkaido generally reject the idea because of antipathy against railways (or rather, trade unions) that has lasted for decades and highly sceptical about the necessity of having them.

As I argued before, railways are not necessarily greener or better than cars. In some cases, where new roads can connect cities and towns shorter while railway routes are winding due to historical reasons, road transport is more sustainable and safer than trains. Those five limited express trains might have already fulfilled their roles and about to disappear. Anybody interested in the journey are highly recommended to plan a trip before it is too late.

2024 Timetable Changes on JR Network

JR companies published details about timetable revision on Saturday 16th March 2024. Unlike the past three years, several lines will provide more services than before, indicating the end of train reduction caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The revision usually takes place once a year, and what happens next time?

Reservation Scheme

Before looking into each company, it is important to note about limited express trains. After the timetable change, limited express services listed below will have reserved seats only.

Hokkaido:	Hokuto, Ozora, Suzuran, Tokachi
East:	Sazanami, Shiosai, Wakashio
Central:	Shirasagi
West:	Thunderbird, Super Hakuto
	Super Inaba, Yakumo

According to the companies, introducing the all-reserved scheme will be fair for all passengers as they no longer have to wait for hours at platform to have a seat. Moreover, reserved-seat tickets are a little more expensive than non-reserved tickets so that the companies can expect more revenue. Furthermore, conductors will no longer have to carry out ticket inspection for all passengers onboard, but just have to check a tablet and only ask those sitting on a unreserved seat for ticket.

JR Hokkaido

JR Hokkaido has been declining for years because of financial difficulties, but there is good news. As ridership increased (thanks to foreign travellers), more Rapid Airport services will be provided. There are going to be six trains per hour instead of five between New Chitose Airport and Sapporo at daytime, one of which will be "Special Rapid" calling fewer stations than before (Sapporo, Shin-Sapporo, Mimani-Chitose and the Airport).

On the other hand, five stations on rural lines such as Soya Main Line will be closed. Furthermore, Nemuro Main Line between Furano and Shintoku, most of which has been closed since 2016 due to a devastating typhoon, will be permanently closed on 31st March. The company has been downsizing its network in scarcely populated areas including stations with less than a single user per week. This trend is, as everyone anticipated, continues.

JR East

A brand new E8 series bullet train enters into Yamagata Shinkansen service, replacing E3 series. The new E8 series can run at up to 300 km/h (187 mph), but its maximum speed will be restricted to 275 km/h (171 mph) until all E3 series retire in 2025 or 2026.

Furthermore, ten Yamabiko services on Tohoku Shinkansen at the daytime, which have been reduced since the pandemic began, will be reinstated.

Some E259 series will be reallocated to Limited Express Shiosai (Tokyo – Choshi), replacing all 255 series trains. The Narita Express trains have been repainted since earlier this year, suggesting that they will also be used for other trains.

205 series on Tsurumi Line retires. The commuter train introduced by Japanese National Railways is due to be superseded by brand new E131 series from Christmas Eve, and all old trains will be withdrawn by 16 March.

JR Central

All smoking rooms on Tokaido Shinkansen trains will be closed. Drinking water bottles will be stored in the room and will be provided in case of emergency.

In other news, all services on Chuo Main Line between Nagoya and Nakatsugawa (except Limited Expres Shinano) will be provided by brand new 315 series trains, with maximum speed being raised from 110 to 130 km/h (81 mph).

JR West

Hokuriku Shinkansen, one of the high-speed rails in Japan, will be extended from Kanazawa to Tsuruga in Fukui Prefecture. The fastest service between Tokyo and Tsuruga will take 3 hours and 8 minutes, 50 minutes shorter than the current timetables. 14 services run between Tokyo and Tsuruga every day and more during peak seasons.

Limited express services on Hokuriku Main Line will be rearranged as Shinkansen is extended. To put it simply, those trains between Kanazawa and Tsuruga will be replaced with the Hokuriku Shinkansen. Hence, Thunderbird will run between Osaka and Tsuruga, and Shirasagi will run between Nagoya and Tsuruga. Those who travel from Osaka or Nagoya to Kanazawa and vice versa will also benefit from the new high-speed rail in terms of journey time, but not in terms of fares.

681 series is expected to sharply decline as redundant 683 series will be reallocated to Shirasagi.

There will be new Limited Express Raku Raku Yamato between Nara and Shin-Osaka via Kansai Main Line and Osaka Loop Line. It is specifically designed for commuters who want to have a seat. There will be one return journey a day (weekdays only): one for Shin-Osaka in the morning and the other for Nara in the evening. The entire journey takes 66 minutes. The company also extends Limited Express Raku Raku Harima as such services have been successful. Furthermore, seat reservation scheme on Osaka Higashi Line and Yamatoji Line services during rush hours will be expanded.

To ease congestion amid growing number of foreign tourists, there will be more San-in Main Line (Sagano Line) services between Kyoto and Saga-Arashiyama. This line has been infamous for being overcrowded and yet JR West had been reluctant to do something. It seems that the company finally decided to provide more trains.

273 series, the brand new train for Limited Express Yakumo, will enter into service on 6th April (NOT 16 March). 381 series, the 40-year-old iconic train, will retire by June 2024.

JR Shikoku and JR Kyushu

There is no major changes on their timetables, but JR Shikoku will even out schedules of rural lines. For example, regional services on Kotoku Line at the daytime will leave Takamatsu station 42 minutes past the hour. Tokushima Line trains will leave Tokushima station 22 and 52 minutes past the hour. JR companies have long been accused of providing regional trains in rural areas uneven and thus hard to remember, but such improvement will surely be welcomed by local residents.

There is a rumour that 713 series trains in Miyazaki will retire on the day, but JR Kyushu has not mentioned about its fate so far.

---

There have been sad news about railways in Japan in the last three years, but it is good to hear that there are several positive aspects. Note that abovementioned information is merely a summary of documents published by six JR companies. For detail, check official press release as listed below.

• JR Hokkaido
• JR East
• JR Central
• JR West
• JR Shikoku
• JR Kyushu

The Red List of Trains in Japan (Mar-2023 update)

The Red List of Trains in Japan has been updated with 8 new articles. More importantly, many existing articles have the latest information reflecting the annual timetable revision that took place on Saturday 18th March. For instance:

In Hokkaido, KiHa 283 series has been reinstated as Limited Express Okhotsk and Taisetsu, replacing KiHa 183 series of Japanese National Railways;

JR East 651 series, once known as Super Hitachi and until recently used for Limited Express Akagi and Kusatsu, retired;

JR Central KiHa 85 series was withdrawn from Limited Express Hida;

And the biggest railway project in a decade, Sotetsu and Tokyu Shin-Yokohama Lines finally opened and the new through-services to and from Tokyo were launched.

In addition, there were many more minor changes on train allocation and future prospects of certain trains.

Finally, the new eight articles are as follows:

• Hankai Mo 161 series
• Hankai Mo 351 series
• Hankai Mo 501 series
• Hankai Mo 601 series
• Hankai Mo 701 series
• Hankai 1001 series Sakai Tram
• Hankai 1101 series
• Yokohama Subway 4000 series

2023 Timetable Changes on JR Network

Details about annual timetable changes have been announced by JR Group. The revision will take place on Saturday 18 March 2023. There will be some further service reduction on several lines as the ridership remains lower than pre-pandemic amidst remote-working culture, but services will be reinstated to the original level on several lines. What are other major differences?

New stations

E233 series

Makuharitoyosuna on Keiyo Line (Chiba Prefecture) and Maegata on Tazawako Line (Iwate Prefecture) will open.

Makuharitoyosuna will be located between Shin-Narashino and Kaihimmakuhari stations. The new station is close to a major commercial district that includes Aeon Mall. The station was initially scheduled to open in around 2024, but the construction completed earlier with less expenditures than planned, an extremely rare success in these days. Four trains per hour will call at this station at off-peak times.

701 series

Maegata will be located between Morioka and Okama, and it is next to another Aeon Mall. According to Morioka City, the station usage is expected to be 1,700 a day, the second busiest station on the rural Tazawako Line after Morioka station. 12-16 trains a day should be calling at this station.

Osaka station

New platforms of Osaka station, commonly known as "Umekita", will open. They effectively constitute a new station on Tokaido Main Line (Umeda freight branch line), which has been used for trains from Shin-Osaka to Hanwa Line and vice versa. Limited Express Haruka (Kyoto - Kansai Airport) and Kuroshio (Shin-Osaka - Shingu via Wakayama and Shirahama) will call at Osaka station, one of the most important station in the second largest city of Japan.

According to JR West, it will take 47 minutes from Osaka station to Kansai Airport, 20 minutes shorter than now. The journey time from Osaka to Wakayama will be cut from 90 to 57 minutes.

Trains in Hokkaido

KiHa 141 series

Brand new 737 series trains will be introduced to stopping services on Muroran Main Line, replacing KiHa 141 series. Furthermore, KiHa 183 series, a type of diesel limited express train developed by Japanese National Railways, will retire.

High-speed trains

E7 series

All Joetsu Shinkansen services will be provided by E7 series, replacing E2 series. The maximum speed of the line will be raised from 240 to 275 km/h (150 to 170 mph), and thus the journey time between Tokyo and Niigata will be shortened by up to seven minutes.

Sotetsu & Tokyu Shin-Yokohama Lines

Sotetsu 20000 series

Through-services between Sotetsu lines and Tokyu lines are scheduled to commence in March 2023 as Sotetsu Shin-Yokohama Line is extended and Tokyu Shin-Yokohama open. JR Group is not the party of these new through-services, but there are some indirect effects on them. For example, JR Central sets a Nozomi service from Shin-Yokohama to Shin-Osaka at 6:03 am, which runs on Mondays and Saturdays.

Train fares

Train fares will be raised, especially limited express services during busy seasons. There are currently three levels of limited express ticket fares: peak-season, normal and off-season. The fares calculated mainly based on travel distance, and the price gets 200 yen higher in peak season, whilst 200 yen cheaper in off season. From 1 April 2023, there will be another level called "busiest season (最繁忙期)", which will be 400 yen more expensive than usual. Each JR companies use their own calendars so that, for example, 1 May 2023 is designated by JR East by the busiest whilst JR Central, West, Shikoku and Kyushu do not.

Furthermore, the discount for limited express tickets will be discontinued in some cases. When you purchase a bullet train ticket and a limited express ticket on conventional lines at the same time, the latter ticket is 50% off. This discount is called " transit discount (乗継割引)", but it will not be applied for some limited express services in Chugoku and Shikoku regions from 1 April 2023.

Permanent closure of a rural line

Rumoi Main Line between Ishikari-Numata and Rumoi (35.7 km, 22 miles) will be permanently closed on 1 April 2023, and the rest of the line (14.4 km, 9 miles) will be closed by 31 March 2026. This is a part of downsizing programme carried out by JR Hokkaido, the Government of Hokkaido and other cities and towns nearby.

This article is merely a summary. For more information, see official documents below (written in Japanese). Further detailed timetables are anticipated to be available by February.

• JR Hokkaido
• JR East
• JR Central
• JR West (overview)
• JR Shikoku (no change will take place)
• JR Kyushu

A new guideline: the fate of rural lines in Japan

Overview

Mimasaka-Kawai station, Imbi Line

On 25th July, an expert committee for rural lines, established by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (hereinafter referred to as the Transport Ministry), published a proposal regarding the fate of significantly unprofitable railways in Japan. The proposal includes a guideline of which JR lines could be subject to replacement with road transportation (i.e. permanent closure of the railway). The committee does not demand nor recommend an immediate closure of these lines, but suggests that local governments and railway operators should hold discussions about what to do with rural lines that meet certain criteria. To put it simply, the committee defines that those with "transport density" of fewer than 1,000 might not be sustainable.

There are many lines with less than that figure, but only few of them are likely to be permanently closed in the near future, as Nikkei suggests.

What is Transport density?

Yamanote Line is the most heavily used railway in Japan

In Japan, the "transport density" means how many passengers per one kilometre used the line daily on average. It is defined as a sum of the distance of each passenger divided by the length of the line or section.

For example: there is a 20 km-long line. There are 100 passengers a day on average, and 60 of them use the whole line, while 40 of them use the half. In this case, a sum of the distance of each passengers is 60 (passengers) times 20 (km) plus 40 (passengers) times 10 (km), which equals 1,600. The length of the line is 20 km. Thus, the transport density is 1600/20 = 80 passengers per km a day.

According to the Transport Ministry, the transport density of Tokaido and San-yo Shinkansen high-speed rail was about 658,000 in 2019. According to JR East, the figure of Yamanote Line was 1.12 million in the same year.

Matsuura Railway, former Matsuura Line of JNR

When Act on Special Measures Concerning Promotion of Reconstruction of Japanese National Railways (also known as the JNR Reconstruction Act) was promulgated in 1980, the Transport Ministry issued an ordinance that rural lines with transport density of less than 4,000 should be closed or transferred to entities established privately or by local governments, and 3,157 km (1,962 miles) were axed accordingly (these lines were often called the "83 unprofitable lines").

4,000 passengers per km a day was the key figure for assessing rural lines in the 1980s, but this criterion has been lowered significantly thanks to innovation (not least new trains compatible with driver-only operation and less energy consumption) and downsizing (removal of redundant facilities). According to NHK, it is estimated that lines above 2,000 could be in stable condition today.

What was Decided This Time?

As already noted, the current key figure is 1,000. To be specific (according to Nikkei):

• Transport density of fewer than 1,000 passengers per km a day; and
• The number of passengers between each adjacent stations is always below 500

However, there are a few exceptions:

• Passengers per hour in peak direction exceed 500 (i.e. heavily used by commuters and students at peak times); or
• Served by limited express services that connect major cities; or
• Served by freight trains

The committee also recommended that local governments and railway operators decide the future of the line in question within three years. The solution could be:

• New railway business model that attract more tourists; and/or
• Continuing business with considerable support from local governments. This includes not only giving significant amount of cash or tax reduction, but also ownership transfer of facilities to local governments (meaning JR will not pay maintenance costs); or
• Replacing the railway with bus services, either conventional one or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

The proposal has been criticised by many people (such as the Governor of Ehime Prefecture), but it is worth noting that some local residents welcome the permanent closure, as bus services could be more convenient than rail transport. Like the one in Samani Town in southern Hokkaido, where Hidaka Main Line was effectively closed in 2015, buses often provide more flexible services, as bus stops were installed in front of a high school, care homes, hospitals and a shopping centre.

Which Lines could be Affected?

Kazusa-Kameyama station, Kururi Line

According to official documents, lines listed below have fewer than 1,000 passengers per km a day. Note that not all of them are on the verge of closure, as some of them are served by limited express and/or freight trains, or major engineering work was carried out recently. Some lines had more than 1,000 before COVID-19 pandemic, and thus being on the list might be temporary. Shinkansen high-speed rail is not included in the percentage calculation.

Click ▼ to browse in detail.

JR Hokkaido (2020)

Hakodate Main Line

Lines with significantly low ridership amount to 56% of the entire network, the worst percentage among all JR. Even Hakodate Main Line is no exception, as this blog explained before.

List of JR Hokkaido▼

• Hakodate Main Line (Oshamambe - Otaru via Kutchan)
• Hidaka Main Line (entire line)
• Muroran Main Line (Numanohata - Iwamizawa)
• Nemuro Main Line (entire line)
• Rumoi Main Line (entire line)
• Sekihoku Main Line (entire line)
• Senmo Main Line (entire line)
• Soya Main Line(entire line)

JR East (2020)

Kamaishi Line

Approximately 31% of the network falls within the scope, and the total length of nearly 1,900 km (1,200 miles) is by far the worst among all JR group. However, many of them (especially "Main Line") are served by limited express and freight trains. Also note that JR East is the largest railway operator in the country, both in terms of the size of network and sales.

More than 20 out of the 31 lines listed below are in Tohoku region, but there are a few in the Greater Tokyo Area (Agatsuma, Kashima and Kururi Lines). GALA Yuzawa branch line of Joetsu Shinkansen is excluded from the list as it is available only during winter ski season.

List of JR East▼

• Agatsuma Line (Naganohara-Kusatsuguchi - Omae)
• Aterazawa Line (Sagae - Aterazawa)
• Ban-etsu East Line (Iwaki - Ononiimachi)
• Ban-etsu West Line (Kitakata - Gosen)
• Chuo Main Line (Tatsuno - Shiojiri)
• Echigo Line (Kashiwazaki - Yoshida)
• Gono Line (Higashi-Noshiro - Goshogawara)
• Hachinohe Line (Same - Kuji)
• Hanawa Line (entire line)
• Iiyama Line (Iiyama - Echigo-Kawaguchi)
• Ishinomaki Line (entire line)
• Joetsu Line (Minakami - Echigo-Yuzawa)
• Kamaishi Line (entire line)
• Kashima Line (entire line)
• Kesennuma Line (entire line)
• Kitakami Line (entire line)
• Koumi Line (Kobuchizawa - Nakagomi)
• Kururi Line (Kururi - Kazusa-Kameyama)
• Ofunato Line (entire line)
• Oito Line (Shinano-Omachi - Minami-Otari)
• Ominato Line (entire line)
• Ou Main Line (Shinjo - Yuzawa, Odate - Hirosaki)
• Rikuu East Line (Furukawa - Shinjo)
• Rikuu West Line (entire line)
• Suigun Line (Hitachi-Omiya - Asakanagamori)
• Tadami Line (Aizu-Bange - Koide)
• Tsugaru Line (entire line)
• Uetsu Main Line (Murakami - Tsuruoka, Sakata - Ugo-Honjo)
• Yahiko Line (Yahiko - Yoshida)
• Yamada Line (entire line)
• Yonesaka Line (entire line)

JR Central (2016)

A train similar to that on Meisho Line

No official document is available so far, but the Transport Ministry published one instead in 2016. It shows that the entire Meisho Line had 273 passengers per km a day, but others had more than 1,000. Meisho Line amounts to just 3% of the entire JR Central network.

JR West (2020)

Kishin Line

About 30% of the lines operated by JR West have fewer than 1,000 passengers per km a day, most of which are in Chugoku Region.

List of JR West▼

• Bantan Line (Wadayama - Teramae)
• Etsumi-Hoku Line (entire line)
• Fukuen Line (Fuchu - Shiomachi)
• Geibi Line (Bitchu-Kojiro - Shimo-Fukawa)
• Imbi Line (Higashi-Tsuyama - Chizu)
• Kakogawa Line (entire line)
• Kansai Main Line (Kameyama - Kamo)
• Kisei Main Line (Shingu - Shirahama)
• Kishin Line (entire line)
• Kisuki Line (entire line)
• Mine Line (entire line)
• Obama Line (entire line)
• Oito Line (Minami-Otari - Itoigawa)
• Onoda Line (entire line)
• San'in Main Line (Kinosakionsen - Kogushi)
• San'in Main Line (Senzaki branch line)
• Yamaguchi Line (entire line)

JR Shikoku (2021)

Mugi Line

JR Shikoku is known for facing severe financial difficulties along with JR Hokkaido, but surprisingly, only four lines fall within the scope. Even so, it is equivalent to 23.5% of the network.

List of JR Shikoku▼

• Dosan Line (Susaki - Kubokawa)
• Mugi Line (Anan - Awa-Kainan)
• Yodo Line (entire line)
• Yosan Line (Mukaibara - Iyo-Ozu)

JR Kyushu (2020)

Nichinan Line

22% of the network could be subject to be axed in the future. When Nishi-Kyushu Shinkansen opens in September 2022, lines in Nagasaki and Saga Prefectures are likely to be added to the list.

List of JR Kyushu▼

• Chikuhi Line (Imari - Karatsu)
• Chikuho Main Line (Keisen - Haruda, also known as Haruda Line)
• Gotoji Line (entire line)
• Hisatsu Line (entire line)
• Hohi Main Line (Miyaji - Miemachi)
• Ibusuki-Makurazaki Line (Ibusuki - Makurazaki)
• Karatsu Line (Karatsu - Nishi-Karatsu)
• Kitto Line (entire line)
• Misumi Line (entire line)
• Nichinan Line (except towards Miyazaki Airport)
• Nippo Main Line (Saiki - Nobeoka, Miyakonojo - Kokubu)

Conclusion

Falling within the scope of 1,000 passengers per km a day does not necessarily mean that the line should be closed anytime soon. Not a few of them will remain as they have limited express and freight trains. Even without them, many lines are highly likely to be kept open with financial supports by the central and local governments. However, a few lines would be permanently closed in the near future if local residents agree with it.

The proposal applies only to JR lines. Even if not as radical as Beeching Axe, railway networks in Japan are likely to be rearranged in the coming years. In the case of permanent closure, there should be bus services convenient and reliable enough to be used as alternative means of transport by local residents.