JR East will change its timetables on Saturday 13th March 2021. Major timetable changes generally aim to encourage more passengers to use trains with more convenient and attractive services, but the next one is to reduce services amid the pandemic.
Moreover, JR East plans to make services even far less useful just like it has been doing for a decade, as this article argues.
One of the most important change in March will be a reform of Tokaido line service. 185 series of Japanese National Railways (introduced in 1981-82) on Odoriko and Shonan Liner trains will be taken out of regular service. In addition, JR East is going to upgrade Shonan Liner services to Limited Express Shonan.
Shonan Liner consists of three different trains: the genuine Shonan Liner (Tokyo - Odawara), Ohayo Liner Shinjuku (Odawara to Shinjuku) and Home Liner Odawara (Shinjuku to Odawara). They are designed for commuters: in addition to a normal fare ticket or a season ticket, a 520-yen "Liner ticket" guarantees taking a seat. It takes 40-50 minutes between Tokyo/Shinjuku and Fujisawa, or 70-90 minutes between Tokyo/Shinjuku and Odawara, roughly 10 minutes faster than stopping services. Since Tokaido line has been notorious for extreme congestion, Liner trains have been popular.
Shonan Liner commenced in 1986 by the JNR. It had been suffering from immense deficit and desperately looking for a new source of revenue. The JNR found that some empty coaching stock moves could be profitable if they were available for commuters who hated packed trains at peak times. After the privatisation, JR East expanded the service with various rolling stock. Today, the JNR 185 and JR East 215 series trains are used on those Shonan Liner services on weekdays.
JR East announced last year that it would completely replace the 185 and 215 series with E257 series, and rebrand Liner trains to limited express Shonan, while journey times remain almost unchanged. The company insists that the new service will be more convenient, comfortable with simpler fare system than the current system. However, the "upgrade" is likely to bring undesirable consequences, rather than improving the quality.
The most serious issue is price. The current "Liner ticket" for standard class costs 520 yen no matter how long the passenger takes the train. On the other hand, the limited express ticket will cost 1,020 yen between Shinjuku/Tokyo and stations beyond Fujisawa (including Odawara). To put it simply, JR East will effectively double the fare. The company will offer a discount of 100 yen (300 yen until 30 Sep 2021) if a ticket is purchased online, but still disproportionately expensive.
Furthermore, the "new" rolling
stock is not actually new. The E257 series was introduced in 2001-02 to Chuo
line trains, and reallocated to Tokaido line in 2020. They have been refurbished,
but they are nearly 20 years old, making it difficult to justify the fare rise.
Is the 1,020-yen ticket reasonable compared
to rivals? There are two alternatives for the routes. The first one is Odakyu
line, and the second one is, surprisingly, a bullet train.
Odakyu provides Morning Way and Home Way trains between Shinjuku and Fujisawa or Odawara. All Romancecar trains are used on the service. It takes 53-67 minutes between Shinjuku and Fujisawa, and 76-84 minutes between Shinjuku and Odawara. Odakyu trains take slightly longer than JR East in general, and there are fewer services in the morning, but far more in the evening and late at night. Morning and Home Way trains cost 630 yen (Shinjuku - Fujisawa) or 910 yen (Shinjuku - Odawara), cheaper than new Shonan trains of JR.
Another rival is Shinkansen bullet train. It takes 33-36 minutes between Tokyo and Odawara, obviously faster than any other train, but a bullet train ticket (non-reserved standard class) costs 1,760 yen. However, JR Central offers a special deal called "新幹線乗車サービス (Service for those on Bullet Train)" for those having an IC season ticket (e.g. Suica), in which case the bullet train fare between the stations is only 990 yen. Note that the season ticket is valid either on Tokaido line or Tokaido Shinkansen. Almost all passengers use an IC card in these days so that the condition does not hamper "grabbing the deal".
To sum up, see the table below regarding
the Odawara services:
It is not always easy to make a comparison, but it is no exaggeration to say that Shonan is the most useless choice in terms of fare, journey time and frequency.
Finally, I point out an option that JR East
is likely to do…reduce stopping services during rush hours so that commuters
would have no other choice but to purchase the ticket for Shonan. It actually
happened on Utsunomiya line in the mid-2010s when Home Liner Koga and Home
Liner Konosu were discontinued.